房子翻转的利润在大流行期间达到了历史新高 - 如果您进入游戏？

翻转房屋在现实电视上总是看起来如此酷，毫无疑问，这些表明压缩成60分钟的细分市场，促进了这一房地产投资趋势的普及。实际上，翻转痛苦的财产可能会令人振奋，但它也可以导致金融灾难。

So, is a global pandemic the right time to consider getting into the house-flipping business? Or is this the worst mistake you can make?

Home Flipping Rates Are Down

根据一个新的报告按ATTOM数据解决方案，房屋翻转既上涨又下跌，具体取决于您正在查看的统计数据。例如，在2020年的第三季度（在出版时提供数据的最新季度），翻转了57,155个单家族房屋和公寓。根据该报告，这占所有房屋销售额的5.1％。

That’s a lot of flipping, until you consider that in the second quarter of 2020, flips were 5.7 percent of all home sales. And in the third quarter of 2019, flips were 5.5 percent of all home sales.

This means that home flipping rates are down, and according to the report, this trend is consistent across more than 90 percent of local markets (148 out of 159 metropolitan areas).

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The largest quarterly decreases were in the following metro areas:

• Killen, Texas (-44.5 percent)
• 萨凡纳，GA。（-43％）
• 距离努恩。（-42％）
• 格洛伊，Colo。（-41.5％）
• 斯普林菲尔德，质量。（-39.8％）

Other cities with quarterly decreases—ranging from 39.1 to 37 percent—include Raleigh, N.C.; Atlanta; Kansas City, Mo.; San Diego; and Rochester, N.Y.

However, some areas actually saw an increase in home-flipping rates. The largest increases were in the following areas:

• 达文波特，爱荷华州（+18.5％）
• Hilton Head，S.C.（+16.8％）
• Scranton，Penn。（+12.2％）
• Amarillo，德克萨斯州（+10.9％）
• 卡拉马祖，密歇根州（+7.7％）

House Flipping Returns Are On the Rise

据报道，虽然翻转速率降低，但实际利润实际上很高。在2020年第三季度，销售的毛利率为73,766美元，而2020年的第二季度为69,000美元，2019年第三季度为61,800美元。这是自2018年第一季度以来的最高投资回报率，它看到了48％的投资回报率。

这些利润率在分析的159个地铁地区的104个中持符合。最大的利润率在以下领域：

• Brownsville, Texas (182.9 percent)
• Austin, Texas (176.4 percent)
• Waco，德克萨斯州（157.4％）
• 斯普林菲尔德，MO.（145.3％）
• 萨凡纳，GA。（143.6％）

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年利润率较大的其他城市增加 - 从74％到54％ - 包括罗利，N.C;凤凰;堪萨斯城，莫。和拉斯维加斯。

然而，一些地区认为家庭翻转投资回报率下降。最大的下降在以下领域：

• Corpus Christi，德克萨斯州（77％）
• Hilton Head，S.C.（72.9％）
• 博尔德，Colo。（69.1％）
• Wilmington, N.C. (58.9 percent)
• 南方弯，IND。（54.1％）

翻转增加的平均时间

该报告还表明，在大流行期间翻转房屋需要更长的时间。在2020年的第三季度，完成交易的平均时间是192天。在2020年的第二季度，平均时间为184天，并在2019年第三季度，只有184天。

事实上，2020年第三季度平均192天是17年来最长的平均时间（自2003年第三季度）。

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为什么你应该进入游戏

So, is this a good time to dip your toes into the house-flipping market? Henry Angeli III, owner of亨利买了家园in Jacksonville, Fla., believes that it’s a great time to be flipping houses. “There’s record-low inventory due to increased demand as a result of lowered mortgage interest rates,” he says. “Everyone is trying to capitalize on these lower rates as a result of increased buying power—especially in my market in Jacksonville.”

他的热情是由卢克史密斯分享的，的创始人我们在肯塔基州购买物业, who believes that now is a better time than ever to get into the business. Smith also points to low inventory levels, resulting in a high demand. “Materials to complete a renovation are more expensive, as the prices have risen from supply chain deficiencies due to the pandemic, but property values are appreciating quickly,” Smith explains. “The strong demand has caused property values to trade at a record pace and higher price points, which is great for house flipping.”

Smith warns against overpaying to get into the house flipping market. “But otherwise, if you can easily manage a project, you can come out ahead.”

Why You Shouldn’t Get in the Game

然而，不是每个人都非常乐观，关于新手在房屋翻转业务中的成功。“现在有”创纪录的利润“，因为房屋市场由于Covid-19而爆炸，并且在市场上首次购买时，市场上的呈指数级增长，”Ryan Serhant., a real-estate broker and costar on Bravo’s百万美元上市纽约。“但那个三角洲不会持久，”他警告道。“在房子翻转的业务中，你赚钱购买; do not get into the business today based on where houses are卖at—that’s the backwards way.”

Jonathan Faccone，管理会员和创始人Halo homebuyers.在Bridgewater，N.J.，也表示谨慎，因为它与新人有关。“即使整体房地产市场现在是良好的，利润率比他们的利润更大，我不建议人们现在才能进入这一业务。”他提供了三个原因：

1.为新投资者找到良好的交易是极其困难的。

“The market is already saturated with many experienced investors looking for deals with the right profit margin in them.” Faccone says it’s incredibly hard for brand-new investors to compete unless they’re willing to pay more for the same house. “If you have to overpay in order to get into a project, you will be taking on more risk of losing money when all is said and done.”

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2. The pandemic is making it more difficult to renovate properties.

为了获利，Faccone表示，目标总是在最短的时间内进入项目。“这将确保您最大限度地提高您的利润潜力，同时减轻其他风险，例如超越装修或不符合预计销售价格。”然而，由于乡镇以缓慢的步伐运营（并且经常减少员工），他说检查，建设许可证等，需要更长时间才能完成。“这是一个问题，因为随着项目时间的增加，携带成本将增加，这将减少利润。”他说，更危险的是，市场可以转移 - 如果在携带项目时发生这种情况，这可能是灾难性的。

3. It has become harder to analyze a good deal because of the pandemic.

“The key to flipping houses successfully is buying at the right price, which requires correctly evaluating a home to determine what it can sell for.” In a perfect environment, Faccone says it’s hard to evaluate the home’s ARV (after repair value), but says COVID-19 is causing prices to adjust quickly. “It is becoming hard to forecast exactly what the ARV will be when you are ready to put the home on the market, and it becomes more of a guessing game than a calculated investment decision.” He recommends waiting until the market stabilizes before jumping in.